Hungary Weekly Brief: scandals, withdrawals and a high-stakes countdown — 4 April 2026

by Daily News Hungary

Apr 04, 2026

The excitement is building; there’s just a little over a week left, and we’ll soon find out who will lead Hungary for the next four years.

The week in one sentence

This week, the Hungarian election campaign took its most dramatic turn yet: opposition candidates rallied behind Tisza, a leaked recording revealed the foreign minister’s behind-the-scenes talks with Moscow, Orbán’s son has become a campaign issue, and Washington is entering the final stretch of the campaign with the arrival of the vice president.

Top story - Just over a week before the election

Hungary will hold its election in 8 days. In the penultimate week of the campaign, there have been even bigger scandals, and a trend toward candidates withdrawing from the race is also evident.

The opposition unites

As we know, in an unprecedented move ahead of the election, several well-known parties announced that they would not run in order to ensure the victory of the most popular opposition party, Tisza. Among those withdrawing are the MMN, Momentum, the LMP, ISZOMM, the Humanists, Dialogue, and the MSZP. Now, however, even the remaining independent candidates are withdrawing in order to topple the government.

In the penultimate week, even the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party did something it had never done before: it withdrew its independent candidates in three districts (Veszprém 3, Pest 14, and Nógrád 1) to facilitate a change of government. They selected districts where the Dog Party’s own support exceeds the difference between Fidesz and the Tisza candidate.

The DK and Jobbik have also joined the ranks of those withdrawing. According to analysts, the pressure on those withdrawing is coming not only from the public but also from the candidates’ personal circles—the candidates weighed whether they wanted to appear on posters in a way that their opposition-aligned acquaintances might perceive as harmful to the cause of a change in government.

The Nógrád 1st district has become a particularly exciting case, where three opposition candidates withdrew in favour of the Tisza Party’s candidate; moreover, the KDNP mayor of Bátonyterenye in the district also openly backed the opposition party.

A Fidesz (ruling party) – Mi Hazánk (opposition) alliance is taking shape, but there is no official decision

A notable shift can also be observed on the side of Fidesz, the other major force and one of the frontrunners in the election. Mi Hazánk itself has not issued an official call for vote-splitting—in fact, the party previously announced that its candidates would not withdraw under any circumstances. Nevertheless, an increasing number of figures from the nationalist-radical milieu are urging Mi Hazánk voters to cast their individual votes for Fidesz.

This vote-splitting strategy is thus spreading from the grassroots, through opinion leaders in the nationalist-radical circles, without a party decision, but with increasing intensity. However, this also means that Mi Hazánk’s chances of entering parliament could be even more at risk, because if some of Mi Hazánk’s voters cast their ballots for the Fidesz candidate on 12 April, they may well end up voting for Fidesz on the national list as well, which could result in a loss of votes for Toroczkai’s party and jeopardize its ability to reach the parliamentary threshold (5%).

Opinion polls: wildly divergent pictures

Overall, the polls show a Tisza lead, but the magnitude of the difference varies dramatically from one pollster to another, and the division within the polling market itself has become a political issue.

Institutes tied to independent and opposition clients measure a large lead for Tisza. According to the latest data from the 21 Research Centre, the ratio is 54:38 in Tisza’s favour among party voters and 56:37 among certain voters: the difference has grown to 19 percentage points. According to the Republikon Institute, the ratio is 49:40 in favour of Tisza among both party voters and certain voters. According to a survey by Závecz Research, Tisza currently has a voter base of about 3 million, while the number of Fidesz sympathisers stands at around 2.4 million.

In contrast, institutes close to the government paint a completely different picture. The Nézőpont Institute’s latest seat projection forecasts an absolute majority for Fidesz: they predict a Fidesz victory in 66 single-member districts and a Tisza victory in 39, which would ultimately result in 109 Fidesz and 80 Tisza seats.

Latest polls:

Voter enthusiasm is sky-high

According to a survey, 78 percent of voters are certain they will participate in next Sunday’s election, suggesting turnout close to record levels.

For the first time in 16 years, the ruling party appears vulnerable. At the same time, the strong opposition camp is provoking a greater reaction from ruling party supporters.

This is likely to result in a high turnout, perhaps the highest since 1990! One thing is certain: the final week will be less about scandals; now all efforts are focused on their own voters to mobilise them.

The 2+2 key stories of the week

Szijjártó–Lavrov: Leaked conversations before the election

On 31 March, an investigative journalism consortium released an audio recording of a phone conversation between Péter Szijjártó and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The conversation took place on 30 August 2024.

What happened?

The Hungarian minister promises Moscow that he will jointly initiate, with Slovakia, the removal of the sister of Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov from the EU sanctions list. According to the publishers, this was just one of many similar discussions that took place between the two foreign ministers between 2023 and 2025. According to the leaked documents, Szijjártó shared important EU information with Moscow and once asked the Russians for guidance on how to argue in Brussels for the removal of certain individuals from the sanctions list.

What were the domestic and foreign policy reactions?

The scandal sparked strong domestic and foreign policy reactions. Czech President Petr Pavel called it completely unacceptable, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated: “Viktor Orbán and his foreign minister left Europe long ago.”

Szijjártó did not deny the authenticity of the recordings; instead, he accused Western intelligence agencies of eavesdropping and emphasised that he says the same thing on the phone as he does in public: namely, that he considers the sanctions policy harmful to both Hungary and the EU.

At the same time, the opposition argues that this conversation proves that the Orbán government is serving Russia’s interests and that Hungary has reverted to the foreign policy line it followed before the regime change. Critics argue that national interest and sovereignty are merely propaganda because the Hungarian foreign minister clearly plays a subordinate role in the phone conversation, and Moscow dictates what they should say in Brussels. Details: Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó aided Putin and his oligarchs: leaked recording emerges – video

Captain Pálinkás: On Orbán’s son and the state of the armed forces

Szilveszter Pálinkás, the former face of the Hungarian Armed Forces’ recruitment campaign, appeared publicly for the first time using his real name and face, and made statements in a video interview that garnered one million views in a single day. According to the captain, there are so many disillusioned soldiers that once the state of war is lifted, they will all leave the service, and the country’s defence capability would approach zero.

What was the most serious claim?

The most serious claim in the interview concerned the planned mission to Chad: According to Pálinkás, Gáspár Orbán personally shared the mission’s strategic analyses with him and stated that he expects a 50% casualty rate, meaning that half of the Hungarian soldiers in the mission he planned would die. When the captain tried to convince him to halt the process, Gáspár Orbán allegedly replied: “To become a developed army, we will gain experience through bloodshed.”

What kind of reactions have we received?

The government’s response was restrained but firm. The Ministry of Defence issued a statement in which, while explicitly rejecting Pálinkás’s allegations, they did not mention the captain’s name even once. Lieutenant General Gábor Böröndi stated: there is no valid political decision regarding a role in Chad, so no military planning is underway. He added that thousands have joined the armed forces in recent months. Defence Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky emphasised that the functioning of the army cannot be the subject of political debate, and he finds it regrettable when certain individuals use the armed forces to serve political ends.

On the opposition side, Péter Magyar stated that what Pálinkás said cannot be misinterpreted or dismissed, and he asked the soldiers to look out for the captain.

PM Orbán demands immediate end to Russian energy sanctions

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán urged on Thursday the immediate lifting of sanctions on Russian energy supplies. Given that Budapest typically consults with Moscow regarding its communications with the EU (a fact that the Hungarian foreign minister has not denied), this latest stance comes as no surprise.

Yet it is not certain that this is the right direction for the Orbán government, which always emphasises its sovereignty. Details.

Hungarian secret service admittedly monitored Tisza Party-supporting businessman

Hungary’s Constitution Protection Office (Alkotmányvédelmi Hivatal, AH) has come under scrutiny following reports that it monitored a businessman with links to opposition circles, including figures associated with the Tisza Party. Details.

Economy, finance

Guest workers: Who can stay, and who can’t?

The immediate stakes of the election also affect tens of thousands of foreign workers in Hungary. Fidesz is expected to maintain the current, regulated guest worker system, which distinguishes between licensed migrant workers and illegal immigrants. Tisza, on the other hand, has taken a much stricter stance: if they win, they will not allow new guest workers from outside the EU to enter starting in June 2026 (at least until further notice), arguing that domestic workers’ wage levels must be addressed first.

The situation of those already working in Hungary, however, remains uncertain in both scenarios: existing permits are expected to remain valid until expiration, but renewal could become the biggest source of uncertainty if the new government changes the rules.

The greatest impact is expected on the manufacturing, logistics, construction, and battery industries.

It is a fact, however, that there is a labour shortage in Hungary, so whatever government is in power will need to recruit workers from somewhere. Read our analysis here: Will guest workers stay in Hungary after the election? What Orbán and Magyar promise

The shadow of the Iran war over the Hungarian economy

The conflict in the Middle East is not merely a diplomatic issue: it directly affects Hungary’s economy.

As a result of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of global energy markets, the European gas benchmark price has risen by roughly 60–70 percent since the escalation, while the price of Brent crude oil has risen by 50 percent and has remained consistently above USD 100. Hungary is particularly vulnerable, as it covers a large portion of its energy needs through imports: the sustained price hikes are not only reflected in gasoline prices but also in household heating bills, electricity prices, and corporate cost bases, which carries the risk of another wave of inflation, just as Hungary was trying to recover from the previous energy shock.

The forint traditionally reacts sensitively to such external shocks, which could further intensify inflationary pressure through imports. Read the analysis here: Iran war’s devastating consequences for Hungary: soaring energy costs, inflation risks and recession fears

The minimum wage: a record increase, but still at the bottom of the pack

In January 2026, Hungary raised the minimum wage by 11 percent, bringing the gross monthly wage to 322,500 forints, which is equivalent to approximately 839 euros: the largest percentage increase in the EU this year.

However, according to recent Eurostat data, Hungary still ranks fourth from the bottom on the EU list.

The regional comparison is telling: the minimum wage in neighbouring Croatia is 1,050 euros, Poland’s is EUR 1,139, and Slovenia’s is EUR 1,278—while Luxembourg, at the top of the list, has a minimum wage of nearly EUR 2,700, creating a gap of about EUR 2,000 between the two extremes.

It is important to note that the ranking calculated using purchasing power parity paints a more favourable picture for Hungary, as the lower cost of living partially offsets the nominally lower wage level. Read details here: Hungary’s minimum wage among the lowest, even after a more than 10% raise

+1 Gas flows from Hungary to Ukraine suddenly stop: here’s what’s behind it

Diplomacy watch

United States

Trump administration involvement ahead of the Hungarian elections

U.S. Vice President JD Vance will visit Budapest on 7–8 April, where he will hold bilateral talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, just four days before the 12 April election. Vance would be the highest-ranking U.S. visitor to Hungary since President Bush’s trip to Budapest in 2006. The visit represents the Trump administration’s open commitment to Orbán, which was already evident in Marco Rubio’s trip in February and Trump’s repeated campaign support. Details.

The opposition views the visit as election interference; pro-Fidesz commentators celebrate it as a reaffirmation of the two countries’ strategic friendship.

By the way, here’s another perspective: A Reuters analysis highlights a paradox: According to Zsuzsanna Végh, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, Trump has remained reserved toward Orbán so far because he senses the risk of defeat and does not want to be associated with a potential loser. Is there a show of support, or not?

UK

Ambassador Justin McKenzie Smith met this week with Gergely Karácsony, the mayor of Budapest. Facebook post.

Uzbekistan

Cooperation between the Hungarian police and the Uzbek Ministry of the Interior continues to grow stronger. Facebook post.

Indonesia

From Indonesia to Hungary: celebrating Ramadan and Eid far from home

Italy

Groundbreaking ceremony for a new combined-cycle power plant in Tiszaújváros. The Turkish Çalık Holding and the Italian Ansaldo Energia were awarded the contract and are collaborating on the project. Facebook post.

What to watch for next week

Further withdrawals are expected from both major parties
Where there’s one recording, there are likely more. The question is whether, following the Szijjártó-Lavrov conversation, another excerpt will surface this week—timed to coincide with the days leading up to the election.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance will hold a joint press conference and a rally on Tuesday; the effects of this will be interesting to watch.
From an economic perspective, the behavior of the forint and major Hungarian stocks in the week leading up to the election will also be interesting. Will the market wait it out, or will it price in the election results in advance?

Hungary Insider

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